Samoa is six days away from by elections that will decide 7 seats in the tightest  Parliament Samoa has had for the most part of 40 years.

Can there be a change of Gvt with the 7 by-elections and the 2 women’s seats? There are several scenarios that could eventuate, especially with the way the women’s seats are set out to mean the number of Parliamentarians increases to accommodate the minimum requirement of 6 women.

Currently the ruling FAST party have 26 seats while HRPP have 18.

To equal that number (26) and create a hung Parliament HRPP would require 8 seats. How could 8 be achieved? That would mean winning all 7 seats, and having the additional women’s seat. A hung Parliament could only occur in this scenario IF there is only one women’s seat needed.

To get a majority in Parliament (27) HRPP would require 9 seats. How could 9 be achieved? That would mean winning all 7 seats and having a scenario where 2 additional women’s seats are needed.. and both are won by their candidates.

Are these scenarios possibilities? The voters will decide and time will tell.

Note: there are several other possibilities due to the varuous women’s seat scenarios.

Also note! Before you get too excited with your predictions… There could be another cycle of election petitions and by-elections coming out of these by-elections!

Happy Voting to the 7 Constitiencies.