7am Tuesday 14th December 2021. Forecast track JTWC and BoM.
Australian forecasters have named the storm in the Coral Sea “Ruby” after reaching tropical cyclone status on Sunday afternoon.
Having formed in the Coral Sea, it is currently a Category 2 travelling south west at the rate of 20kmph with winds of 110kmph and gusts of up to 170kmph at its centre, however, it is expected to intensify into a Category 3 later today.
It was forecast to hit the northern parts of New Caledonia last night and continue to move over New Caledonia today.
New Caledonia authorities say RUBY is forecast to move close to the eastern coast of Grande Terre, the Capital of New Caledonia, and then it is expected to pass over the Loyalty Islands around midday of 14 December.
Local authorities have initiated preventive operations ahead of the arrival of RUBY, while flights and maritime transport across the islands in New Caledonia have been cancelled.
Both the Australian and US tracking systems has the first cyclone of the 2021 season heading towards New Zealand.
Weather Watch NZ states, “The storm may strengthen to “severe” Category 3 Tropical Cyclone status with destructive winds. However low pressure zones in the New Zealand and Tasman Sea areas will siphon some energy from this tropical storm, helping to create an ‘atmospheric river’ over parts of New Zealand this week…
“This is when a highway of tropical moisture is funnelled into a narrow area over a period of time, increasing the risks of flooding”.
On the 30th of October 2021, Samoa’s Meteorological Services issued an official Tropical Cyclone Outlook for November 2021 to April 2022 Season for Samoa.
Published below in verbatim
Some key points to note for this coming wet season & tropical cyclone season.
🔸 0 – 1 Tropical Cyclone (TC) is likely to pass the 400km radius of Samoa this tropical cyclone season.
🔸 The TC season extends from November to April with the peak TC activity normally experienced from January to March.
🔸 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook has been raised to La Nina Alert indicating 70% chance of a La Nina to occur in the coming months. La Nina usually brings above average rainfall.
🔸 Rainfall outlook is most likely to be above average for Samoa in the upcoming season.
🔸Potential Impacts for Samoa – torrential rainfall, flash flooding, flooding of low lying areas, coastal flooding, storm surges, water spouts and strong to damaging winds.
The National Tropical Cyclone Statement can be accessed via http://www.samet.gov.ws/images/TC%20OUTLOOK/2021_2022.pdf
Stay vigilant at all times!